International Institute for Population Sciences
Deemed to be University (An Autonomous Organization of Ministry of Health & Family Welfare, Government of India)

People are the most important and valuable resources of any nation. Population growth has become one of the most critical problems in the world. Uttar Pradesh (UP) is the most populous state in the country, accounting for 16.40 percent of the country’s total population. An increased population is always a major problem for developing countries like India because it affects all parameters of a country, especially health and economy. Therefore, it is necessary to estimate the future population precisely. The objective of the present study is to provide estimates of the future population and sex-specific population of Uttar Pradesh from 2021 to 2051 by using nonlinear growth models. A similar study was made by the technical group of the Registrar General of India entitled- “Population Projection for India and States, 2011-2036”. In this study, the projection technique is based on the decennial population data of UP, and different growth models are used to get the population projection of UP from 2021 to 2051. The decennial population data was taken from different censuses from 1901 to 2011, conducted under the control of the Registrar General of India, government of India. The present study uses polynomial, exponential, and logistic growth models to project the population. As mentioned above, the three growth models were fitted separately. Out of these three models, the performance of the logistic growth model was observed to be best fitted based on the absolute mean error and residual sum of squares; hence, logistic growth model was chosen for future population projection. According to this model, the population of UP will be 23.18, 25.81, 27.6, and 29.12 (in crores) in the years 2021, 2031, 2041, and 2051, respectively.